USPS is set to downgrade delivery standards: Which Congressional Districts and States will be hardest hit?

SteveBlog, Featured

Over the coming weeks, the Postal Service is expected to begin implementing its Regional Transportation Optimization initiative. The RTO will end afternoon collections at nearly three-fourths of the country’s post offices and add another day to delivery times for outgoing mail and packages.

On January 31, the Postal Regulatory Commission issued a highly critical advisory opinion about the plan and in particular its negative impacts on rural communities. The Commission urged the Postal Service “to reconsider whether the speculative, meager gains from this proposal outweigh the certain downgrade in service for a significant portion of the nation.”

The advisory opinion shows that for Single-Piece First-Class Mail — the type of mail most likely to be used by a household or business — nearly half of ZIP Code pairs (mail sent from one ZIP Code to another) will experience downgraded service.

Nationwide, under the RTO plan, about 24,400 of the country’s 33,700 post office will no longer get an afternoon collection. About three-fourths of the nation’s ZIP Codes and nearly half of the country’s population will be adversely affected.

The advisory opinion is strictly advisory, so the Postal Service can, and probably will, choose to proceed with implementation despite the Commission’s concerns. Only Congress can stop the slowdown now. It may therefore be useful to consider which Congressional districts and which states would be most adversely impacted by the RTO service changes.

Questions about the Universal Service Obligation

Under the RTO plan, mail and packages won’t be collected at the end of the day and transported to processing centers for sortation. Instead, everything will sit overnight in the back of the post office, waiting to be collected the next morning at the same time the mail is dropped at the post office for delivery.

The plan thus adds at least one day to delivery times. As part of the RTO, the Postal Service has therefore also proposed revising service standards to reflect the additional day for outgoing mail at RTO post offices.

Unlike previous downgrades in service standards, the RTO does not apply uniformly across the entire country. It applies only to post offices located more than 50 miles from one of the 59 Regional Processing & Distribution Centers in the new network. Because these RPDCs are typically located in metropolitan areas, most, but not all, of the impacted post offices are in rural areas.

While the effects of RTO on rural America are of paramount concern, the plan affects cities in disparate ways as well. Many state capitals, for example, will see their mail slow down, while mail sent from within 50 miles of their RPDC will see faster service. Wisconsin’s capital in Madison is more than 50 miles from the RPDC in Milwaukee, so mail sent from Madison will move more slowly than mail sent from Milwaukee. Mail sent from Jefferson City, Missouri, will move more slowly than mail from Kansas City and St. Louis. Mail from Bismarck, North Dakota, will move more slowly than mail from Fargo.

At a hearing about the plan on December 4, 2024, PRC Commissioner Robert Taub expressed concern that the Postal Service is proposing to make an “unprecedented” change in the nature of service because the plan “is not affecting all of us in America in the same way. Rural America, those particularly affected outside of this arbitrary 50 mile radius, are going to be getting different service. That to me raises fundamental questions about what is the universal service obligation that Americans have come to expect.”

Taub, now Vice Chairman of the PRC, went on to state that the American public, through its representatives in Congress, needs to have its views heard, “as opposed to leaving this to unilateral decisions of the Postal Service.”

Impacts on rural communities

Perhaps the simplest way to see the urban-rural divide in the RTO proposal is to look at a map provided in the Postal Service in a presentation back in September 2024. The map shows the areas within 50 miles of a RPDC in yellow and the areas outside the 50-mile radius in blue. (More detailed, interactive versions of this map are here.)

Source: USPS Pre-Filing Conference (September 5, 2024)

This USPS map is very similar to a map of the top fifty metropolitan areas of the country. That’s simply because most RPDCs are in metro areas.

What this means, then, is that large metropolitan areas will not suffer the RTO downgrades and will instead enjoy an upgrade in service standards for some destinations. Everything sent from outside the 50-mile radius around RPDCs will slow down.

Impacts on Congressional Districts

Given the disparate impacts on rural and urban communities, it’s no surprise that Congressional districts that are largely rural will suffer the consequences of lower service standards more than more densely populated districts. Those that are urban may not have any ZIP Codes subject to RTO, while rural districts may see nearly all of their ZIP Codes subject to RTO.

More specifically, 97 districts would see none of their ZIP Codes fall within RTO, while 83 districts would see all of its ZIP Code fall within the RTO. Overall, 142 districts would see at least 90 percent of their ZIPs subject to an RTO downgrade. The remaining districts have some ZIP Codes inside the 50-mile radius of a RPDC and some ZIP codes outside this radius.

Here’s a map showing the Congressional districts and the percentage of ZIP Codes that would be subject to the RTO. Scroll over the map for details.

 

The map is based on the following table, which shows each district (with a link to more info and a map of the district), the total population of the district, the percentage of the population that lives in areas that will be subject to a RTO downgrade, the total number of ZIP Codes in the district, and the percentage of these ZIPs that are subject to the RTO. Note that numbers are estimates due to technical issues involved with combining data on ZIP Codes, Congressional districts, USPS filings with the PRC, and Census populations (e.g., some ZIP Codes fall within two Congressional districts).

RTO Impacts by Congressional District and State

DistrictPopulation% Pop RTOZIPs% ZIPs RTO
Nation329,225,91947%39,92471%
Alabama 1780,286100%103100%
Alabama 2657,47857%14964%
Alabama 3706,93489%9695%
Alabama 4741,976100%126100%
Alabama 5715,011100%87100%
Alabama 6773,12877%7773%
Alabama 7649,40398%16096%
Alabama Total5,024,21689%79889%
Arkansas 1758,90892%28092%
Arkansas 2745,021100%114100%
Arkansas 3750,477100%85100%
Arkansas 4757,069100%226100%
Arkansas Total3,011,55098%70697%
Arizona 1879,9580%330%
Arizona 21,040,57271%20072%
Arizona 3766,4800%234%
Arizona 4792,9820%230%
Arizona 5673,2696%1911%
Arizona 6669,783100%64100%
Arizona 7931,92784%7091%
Arizona 8652,1350%200%
Arizona 9745,83342%6673%
Arizona Total7,152,93936%51862%
California 1735,92983%14492%
California 2827,46868%16071%
California 3782,34537%12284%
California 4675,50624%6452%
California 5716,23882%9791%
California 6747,2170%260%
California 7740,8270%952%
California 8831,4860%270%
California 9719,86187%3979%
California 10777,5820%383%
California 11752,9260%470%
California 12752,3680%320%
California 13864,425100%61100%
California 14683,8300%290%
California 15704,9340%190%
California 16867,08264%4149%
California 17697,12751%1953%
California 18753,85892%4090%
California 19846,319100%10382%
California 20977,467100%9799%
California 21708,626100%32100%
California 22599,501100%46100%
California 23871,73699%8595%
California 24747,24884%7489%
California 25726,646100%6692%
California 26734,25921%4025%
California 27678,49240%1833%
California 28933,09110%3514%
California 29704,1340%140%
California 30821,7390%310%
California 31702,3770%180%
California 32806,1562%307%
California 33538,331100%15100%
California 34685,5340%190%
California 35803,67312%1712%
California 36702,4900%270%
California 37790,2610%220%
California 38768,2470%180%
California 39614,04594%1493%
California 40800,0520%264%
California 41918,94177%3385%
California 42806,3220%274%
California 43822,9260%210%
California 44746,4760%2132%
California 45795,1390%210%
California 46700,1220%150%
California 47753,7470%771%
California 48857,9073%10015%
California 49752,21615%2326%
California 50754,7970%270%
California 51677,5850%190%
California 52749,8740%160%
California Total39,527,48534%2,53948%
Colorado 11,112,4500%620%
Colorado 2860,63152%9771%
Colorado 3730,009100%164100%
Colorado 4536,05237%14273%
Colorado 5718,337100%60100%
Colorado 6794,4180%220%
Colorado 7540,51523%6560%
Colorado 8481,58525%2619%
Colorado Total5,773,99740%63869%
Connecticut 1699,65820%939%
Connecticut 2733,22867%11774%
Connecticut 3754,08894%7297%
Connecticut 4708,20169%6668%
Connecticut 5710,76977%7279%
Connecticut Total3,605,94466%42063%
District of Columbia at-large689,5450%2500%
DC Total689,5450%2500%
Delaware at-large990,27082%8783%
Delaware Total990,27082%8783%
Florida 1783,766100%62100%
Florida 2751,637100%103100%
Florida 3771,81991%9290%
Florida 4784,8770%522%
Florida 5750,9253%274%
Florida 6779,90682%8181%
Florida 7775,03518%5836%
Florida 8769,70371%6271%
Florida 9766,1020%2811%
Florida 10743,8670%520%
Florida 11769,07025%4137%
Florida 12756,64129%5944%
Florida 13746,4360%630%
Florida 14785,1000%570%
Florida 15771,8950%410%
Florida 16745,56816%4319%
Florida 17805,906100%6198%
Florida 18821,50263%7573%
Florida 19740,060100%47100%
Florida 20788,74533%6545%
Florida 21757,451100%42100%
Florida 22762,056100%27100%
Florida 23785,05933%3234%
Florida 24327,7640%110%
Florida 25763,4130%230%
Florida 26555,52637%2361%
Florida 271,035,6870%470%
Florida 28953,7709%4321%
Florida Total21,349,28640%1,44351%
Georgia 1746,24392%8494%
Georgia 2736,824100%134100%
Georgia 3761,88846%7457%
Georgia 4723,74610%2317%
Georgia 5754,8130%350%
Georgia 6851,8320%681%
Georgia 7805,96889%2387%
Georgia 8788,265100%121100%
Georgia 9705,279100%6595%
Georgia 10918,27385%7696%
Georgia 11772,26954%4367%
Georgia 12782,630100%109100%
Georgia 13676,19353%3724%
Georgia 14687,76876%5088%
Georgia Total10,711,99164%94277%
Iowa 1800,06788%22990%
Iowa 2792,734100%244100%
Iowa 3802,58921%20951%
Iowa 4795,64569%35783%
Iowa Total3,191,03569%1,03982%
Idaho 1945,09927%15966%
Idaho 2891,07771%15791%
Idaho Total1,836,17648%31678%
Illinois 1695,4857%2512%
Illinois 2739,73226%10475%
Illinois 3687,2380%160%
Illinois 4792,1020%560%
Illinois 5893,4820%210%
Illinois 6839,9680%500%
Illinois 7740,5770%320%
Illinois 8697,0300%340%
Illinois 9615,7100%230%
Illinois 10798,16130%3741%
Illinois 11769,39817%4023%
Illinois 12831,87578%27694%
Illinois 13665,12857%11770%
Illinois 14779,94824%6461%
Illinois 15791,98284%31893%
Illinois 16841,663100%214100%
Illinois 17632,998100%132100%
Illinois Total12,812,47731%1,56472%
Indiana 1766,73050%4643%
Indiana 2736,780100%113100%
Indiana 3746,964100%127100%
Indiana 4756,32058%12179%
Indiana 5733,76738%7257%
Indiana 6733,43215%8635%
Indiana 7758,9230%480%
Indiana 8753,760100%206100%
Indiana 9798,82747%13353%
Indiana Total6,785,50356%95274%
Kansas 1671,76094%29998%
Kansas 2801,08964%21890%
Kansas 3726,0426%7222%
Kansas 4738,881100%156100%
Kansas Total2,937,77265%74589%
Kentucky 1740,082100%16999%
Kentucky 2802,84963%14283%
Kentucky 3702,9290%690%
Kentucky 4737,98323%10846%
Kentucky 5748,340100%361100%
Kentucky 6760,872100%86100%
Kentucky Total4,513,19065%93684%
Louisiana 1729,41289%11792%
Louisiana 2793,41278%7155%
Louisiana 3771,122100%91100%
Louisiana 4913,486100%192100%
Louisiana 5702,13950%12774%
Louisiana 6742,36749%11258%
Louisiana Total4,651,93879%71083%
Massachusetts 1756,77817%12026%
Massachusetts 2804,41837%11327%
Massachusetts 3769,65925%5044%
Massachusetts 4785,72721%6125%
Massachusetts 5771,2810%522%
Massachusetts 6795,5370%540%
Massachusetts 7781,1410%310%
Massachusetts 8789,7710%680%
Massachusetts 9775,52062%12567%
Massachusetts Total7,029,83218%67427%
Maryland 1764,99196%15497%
Maryland 2849,40774%4883%
Maryland 3731,1928%4615%
Maryland 4810,3200%530%
Maryland 5735,07313%9234%
Maryland 6765,14671%11974%
Maryland 7689,73814%439%
Maryland 8830,9080%350%
Maryland Total6,176,77535%59054%
Maine 1687,05219%15139%
Maine 2675,16581%33489%
Maine Total1,362,21750%48573%
Michigan 1778,357100%273100%
Michigan 2816,56552%15170%
Michigan 3742,1320%550%
Michigan 4753,55155%6860%
Michigan 5783,45386%12890%
Michigan 6781,5363%366%
Michigan 7805,96786%8492%
Michigan 8747,574100%78100%
Michigan 9827,22250%11472%
Michigan 10716,1450%270%
Michigan 11765,2270%530%
Michigan 12745,1050%240%
Michigan 13814,4720%630%
Michigan Total10,077,30641%1,15467%
Minnesota 1716,18491%17597%
Minnesota 2544,9975%3926%
Minnesota 3618,9140%570%
Minnesota 4884,2320%410%
Minnesota 5864,2860%360%
Minnesota 6668,29244%5555%
Minnesota 7700,25585%31890%
Minnesota 708,80792%22597%
Minnesota Total5,707,01939%94776%
Missouri 1762,8030%600%
Missouri 2842,39811%6321%
Missouri 3740,89354%12288%
Missouri 4724,17776%17891%
Missouri 5787,3470%720%
Missouri 6776,57260%29283%
Missouri 7770,139100%124100%
Missouri 8750,84884%23696%
Missouri Total6,155,17747%1,14776%
Mississippi 1737,27467%12385%
Mississippi 2743,97897%20098%
Mississippi 3730,540100%115100%
Mississippi 4748,942100%77100%
Mississippi Total2,960,73491%51595%
Montana 1542,671100%136100%
Montana 2542,06766%26189%
Montana Total1,084,73883%39793%
North Carolina 1718,877100%140100%
North Carolina 2641,855100%47100%
North Carolina 3791,087100%123100%
North Carolina 4709,64495%3394%
North Carolina 5680,41546%8864%
North Carolina 6749,05015%7916%
North Carolina 7765,435100%82100%
North Carolina 8752,09035%6472%
North Carolina 9915,55839%6943%
North Carolina 10712,48215%4825%
North Carolina 11743,822100%109100%
North Carolina 12629,3830%590%
North Carolina 13838,89699%6297%
North Carolina 14813,98914%6727%
North Carolina Total10,462,58361%1,07072%
Nebraska 1609,54173%12179%
Nebraska 2694,8211%618%
Nebraska 3655,03697%42698%
Nebraska Total1,959,39855%60885%
Nevada 1840,2800%550%
Nevada 2769,378100%101100%
Nevada 3717,0641%2914%
Nevada 4777,55414%5860%
Nevada Total3,104,27628%24358%
North Dakota at-large778,44376%40790%
North Dakota Total778,44376%40790%
New Hampshire 1682,23276%11085%
New Hampshire 2695,38773%17194%
New Hampshire Total1,377,61975%28191%
New Jersey 1773,6010%542%
New Jersey 2767,37392%10790%
New Jersey 3733,9118%7111%
New Jersey 4843,83286%4293%
New Jersey 5752,4587%8015%
New Jersey 6759,86230%4650%
New Jersey 7818,89524%10036%
New Jersey 8937,8620%210%
New Jersey 9722,6310%420%
New Jersey 10600,2250%440%
New Jersey 11813,4200%560%
New Jersey 12764,9170%500%
New Jersey Total9,288,98721%71330%
New Mexico 1756,57712%6450%
New Mexico 2745,73169%15679%
New Mexico 3612,78596%20796%
New Mexico Total2,115,09357%42783%
New York 1734,78621%7348%
New York 2849,3660%390%
New York 3738,8260%570%
New York 4772,3170%340%
New York 5809,3040%290%
New York 6833,9940%140%
New York 7652,1150%130%
New York 81,031,2814%215%
New York 9628,27714%1718%
New York 10899,91127%3010%
New York 11711,45230%1817%
New York 12737,9130%1030%
New York 13724,2780%160%
New York 14756,5460%180%
New York 15732,2630%110%
New York 16814,2080%380%
New York 17781,30942%8553%
New York 18768,46497%11792%
New York 19840,539100%308100%
New York 20719,451100%120100%
New York 21805,888100%300100%
New York 22752,538100%127100%
New York 23735,059100%210100%
New York 24790,77055%22559%
New York 25775,5150%640%
New York 26804,647100%41100%
New York Total20,201,01734%2,12867%
Ohio 1775,7400%730%
Ohio 2784,04765%14682%
Ohio 3740,071100%39100%
Ohio 4751,54399%12198%
Ohio 5787,94760%14987%
Ohio 6822,78497%18799%
Ohio 7821,19312%5422%
Ohio 8801,3479%7135%
Ohio 9785,72896%10695%
Ohio 10798,30331%6926%
Ohio 11761,1310%430%
Ohio 12862,710100%139100%
Ohio 13748,89629%7034%
Ohio 14785,19942%8761%
Ohio 15772,763100%52100%
Ohio Total11,799,40256%1,40672%
Oklahoma 1778,435100%69100%
Oklahoma 2776,369100%233100%
Oklahoma 3843,31365%23989%
Oklahoma 4767,08743%11373%
Oklahoma 5794,0576%9622%
Oklahoma Total3,959,26163%75082%
Oregon 1702,90712%8330%
Oregon 2836,66299%17099%
Oregon 3717,4773%3611%
Oregon 4688,028100%94100%
Oregon 5699,51341%5758%
Oregon 6592,51049%3757%
Oregon Total4,237,09752%47872%
Pennsylvania 1756,3494%8011%
Pennsylvania 2774,5480%460%
Pennsylvania 3687,0110%240%
Pennsylvania 4773,84731%9140%
Pennsylvania 5855,14015%5719%
Pennsylvania 6752,88791%7476%
Pennsylvania 7761,196100%79100%
Pennsylvania 8775,923100%143100%
Pennsylvania 9757,52077%21788%
Pennsylvania 10692,2522%7612%
Pennsylvania 11835,35111%10010%
Pennsylvania 12754,4430%1145%
Pennsylvania 13760,73288%21391%
Pennsylvania 14777,58260%27583%
Pennsylvania 15765,68995%33098%
Pennsylvania 16769,01557%14658%
Pennsylvania 17753,0640%700%
Pennsylvania Total13,002,54943%2,13565%
Rhode Island 1539,84645%3656%
Rhode Island 2557,604100%5496%
Rhode Island Total1,097,45073%9080%
South Carolina 1674,929100%58100%
South Carolina 2711,53724%8033%
South Carolina 3739,56794%8992%
South Carolina 4762,314100%6198%
South Carolina 5697,92619%7239%
South Carolina 6800,67664%10379%
South Carolina 7731,476100%71100%
South Carolina Total5,118,42572%53476%
South Dakota at-large884,808100%384100%
South Dakota Total884,808100%384100%
Tennessee 1769,326100%82100%
Tennessee 2780,157100%77100%
Tennessee 3736,162100%87100%
Tennessee 4785,53651%9576%
Tennessee 5731,3287%3424%
Tennessee 6785,65741%8671%
Tennessee 7785,93048%10350%
Tennessee 8782,08564%14885%
Tennessee 9747,2920%680%
Tennessee Total6,903,47357%78072%
Texas 1724,377100%119100%
Texas 2737,9580%254%
Texas 3783,6979%3738%
Texas 4817,49337%8384%
Texas 5793,75529%5260%
Texas 6847,57427%8470%
Texas 7481,8820%130%
Texas 8921,05110%3842%
Texas 9776,9380%230%
Texas 10784,69595%9697%
Texas 11679,152100%113100%
Texas 12780,02623%3234%
Texas 13837,85444%16768%
Texas 14821,72368%6285%
Texas 15922,74280%5584%
Texas 16707,151100%61100%
Texas 17763,032100%114100%
Texas 18760,7080%1180%
Texas 19810,818100%165100%
Texas 20496,2650%120%
Texas 21858,97628%5958%
Texas 22922,30313%5066%
Texas 231,025,86545%11678%
Texas 24852,0190%270%
Texas 25745,80442%7480%
Texas 26676,91917%3043%
Texas 27743,877100%12299%
Texas 28811,64745%6159%
Texas 29627,5350%220%
Texas 30768,6640%990%
Texas 31811,479100%70100%
Texas 32686,5780%200%
Texas 33652,1990%500%
Texas 34680,001100%41100%
Texas 35634,47956%5028%
Texas 36782,02927%7268%
Texas 37749,137100%51100%
Texas 38865,9450%210%
Texas Total29,144,34742%2,50468%
Utah 1872,46023%8650%
Utah 2792,12038%11480%
Utah 3825,58413%8262%
Utah 4780,07418%6139%
Utah Total3,270,23823%34361%
Virginia 1728,18731%13766%
Virginia 2822,795100%99100%
Virginia 3719,568100%50100%
Virginia 4825,3297%10432%
Virginia 5810,72091%16596%
Virginia 6766,046100%162100%
Virginia 7770,05361%8585%
Virginia 8864,8130%590%
Virginia 9806,58099%202100%
Virginia 10819,33251%8966%
Virginia 11674,0060%530%
Virginia Total8,607,42958%1,20577%
Vermont at-large643,077100%308100%
Vermont Total643,077100%308100%
Washington 1771,67630%2129%
Washington 2740,29488%6295%
Washington 3793,52819%8560%
Washington 4668,433100%92100%
Washington 5875,15935%14253%
Washington 6762,16645%9658%
Washington 7794,8860%370%
Washington 8874,20427%11234%
Washington 9705,8310%230%
Washington 10719,0940%422%
Washington Total7,705,27134%71253%
Wisconsin 1709,94124%6727%
Wisconsin 2769,849100%99100%
Wisconsin 3754,54294%15896%
Wisconsin 4730,7190%330%
Wisconsin 5747,84219%7134%
Wisconsin 6693,30677%11082%
Wisconsin 7723,62889%21396%
Wisconsin 8763,89541%11851%
Wisconsin Total5,893,72256%86975%
West Virginia 1896,672100%587100%
West Virginia 2896,67297%25898%
West Virginia Total1,793,34498%845100%
Wyoming at-large576,527100%192100%
Wyoming Total576,527100%192100%

The table can be sorted by column, which allows one to see which districts are most adversely impacted and least impacted by the RTO plan. Click on the arrows by the column headers to sort by the percent of population or percent of ZIP Codes, up or down. To see districts in a particular state, search by the state name. To see all the state totals, search the table by "total." To return to the default sort, click on the arrow on the far right of the table or simply refresh your browser.

Impacts on states

Here's a map showing the percentage of ZIP Codes in each state that will be subject to a service standard downgrade under RTO. Scroll over the map for details.

Four states — Wyoming, Vermont, West Virginia and South Dakota — would see all of their ZIP Codes subject to RTO. In contrast, New Jersey and Massachusetts would see less than 30 percent of their ZIP Codes subject to RTO.

RTO in New York

As an example, consider New York State. In the new network being implemented under the Delivering for America plan, New York will be served by four RPDCs: Rochester, Bethpage on Long Island, Jersey City, NJ, and Springfield, MA. Here are two maps of the state, the first showing the regions served by these RPDCs and the second showing the areas that will be subject to RTO (in blue). (Click on the maps for a larger view.)

Below is a map of New York showing the Congressional districts and how they would be impacted by RTO. The areas around Rochester and Bethpage (in yellow) will not be subject to RTO, while much of the rest of the state (in blue) is more than 50 miles from the four RPDCs and hence subject to RTO.

Overall, about one-third of the state's population and two-thirds of its ZIP codes will fall within the RTO downgrade. Hover over the map for details.

Last year, the Postal Service implemented a pilot version of the RTO called Local Transportation Optimization in the Mid-Hudson region, south of Albany. It was one of 23 areas where the LTO was piloted. The Mid-Hudson pilot ended afternoon collections at nearly 200 post offices. When the RTO plan is implemented, about 1,280 of New York's post offices will lose the afternoon collection. The Postal Service, by the way, has yet to inform customers at the LTO pilot post offices that their mail is being held until the next day.

There’s more about the PRC advisory opinion here. My own comments to the PRC for the advisory opinion are here; several members of Congress submitted this letter; and I'd also recommend the brief submitted by postal advocate Douglas Carlson, here. There's more about the RTO initiative on our RTO dashboard and DFA dashboard.

— Steve Hutkins